News Archives - Livestock Price Insurance

Canadian cattle and beef prices are set in the much larger U.S. market. Price pressure will come when the US herd turns. US cattle and calves on January 1, 2026 were down 0.4%, with beef cows down 1%. The spotty weather and higher borrowing costs are working against the industry restocking after drought. Setting up tight supplies and strong prices for the coming year.

The Canadian cattle herd on January 1st was up 2.5% from 2025. The increase in beef cow numbers in the west (+2%) were slightly larger than in the east (+1.6%). Beef breeding heifers were also larger in the west (+4.9%) compared to the east (+3.6%), pointing to a slightly more aggressive approach by western Canadian producers as they looked to take advantage record setting prices.

Inventories of calves and yearlings were supported by record large net feeder trade. In 2025, Canada was a net feeder importer of 440,000 head, almost 145,00 head larger than 2024. This has allowed beef breeding heifer numbers to increase while at the same time providing a larger supply of calves and feeder cattle for the feedlot industry. On January 1, Canada accounted for 11% of the North American beef cow inventory.

Cattle prices spiked to new record highs in 2025. Alberta fed steer prices were up 16%. Alberta 850 lb feeder steers climbed 29% in 2025 with Alberta 550 lb steer calves up 33%. Average deflated prices for Alberta fed steer, feeder steer and steer calf prices were 23%, 37%, and 47% above their previous respective highs set in 2015. Deflated cow-calf returns were also estimated to be record large in 2025, supporting expansion.

The Bank of Canada’s prime interest rate drifted lower throughout 2025. However, the annual average was still two percentage points higher than in 2015. This requires a larger proportion of revenue to support debt repayment and is expected to slow herd expansion in this cycle. A slower expansion phase will support prices for longer, as long as demand holds up.

The Canadian unemployment rate averaged 6.9% in 2025, the highest since 2016 (omitting 2020 and 2021). A December survey found that hiring managers noted a skills gap, in both hard and soft skills, as they struggled to fill positions.

Bottom line: The Canadian herd has turned and is entering the expansion phase. However, interest costs are notably higher than during the 2015 expansion phase. Weather remains the biggest unknown. Expectations are for a slower turn for the North American herd.

2025-26P BARLEY SUPPLY AND DISPOSITION

Canadian barley production was 9.7 million metric tonnes in 2025, up 19% from 2024, and up 9% from the five-year average.
Barley exports in 2025-26 are projected to be up 18% from 2024-25. Total domestic use in 2025-26 is projected at 6.1 million metric tonnes, up 13% from 2024-25.
Ending stocks in 2025-26 are projected at 1.6 million metric tonnes, up 28% to be the largest since 2016. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 26%, also the largest since 2016. Keeping prices under pressure.

2025-26P CORN SUPPLY AND DISPOSITION

Canadian corn production was 14.87 million metric tonnes, down 3% from 2024-25 and was the third largest on record.
Exports in 2025-26 are projected at two million metric tonnes, down 28% from 2024-25. Total domestic use in 2025-26 is projected at 14.8 million metric tonnes, steady with 2024-25.
Ending stocks in 2025-26 are projected at 1.6 million metric tonnes, up 1% from 2024-25. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 11%, compared to the five-year average of 13%.

FEED GRAIN PRICES

Lethbridge barley averaged $293/tonne in 2025, up 1% from 2024, up 3% from the 10-year average, but down 16% from the five-year average. Lethbridge barley was mostly steady near $310/tonne through the first half of the year. Prices softened immediately prior to the 2025 harvest, bottoming near $257/tonne in October before rebounding higher to end the year.
Lethbridge barley was priced competitively against Alberta oats in 2025, but not against Omaha or Ontario corn.
Ontario corn averaged $239/tonne in 2025, up 12% from 2024, up 3% from the 10-year average but down 12% from the five-year average. Ontario corn was in a tight range of $225- 250/tonne in 2025, with a ‘V’ shape, bottoming in August.
Omaha corn averaged C$253/tonne in 2025, up 2% from 2024, up 14% from the 10-year average, but down 15% from the five-year average.

HAY PRICES

Alberta hay prices averaged $197/ton ($217/tonne), down 20% from 2024 and 6% below the five-year average, but up 15% from the 10-year average.
Alberta hay was largely rangebound from $180-200/ton, with little variation except in December, when prices spiked to near $220/ton.
Montana hay prices averaged US$126/ton (C$219/tonne) in 2025, a C$20/ton discount to Alberta.

Bottom line: Record large global corn production has kept pressure in the feed grain market. Even with the increase in feed costs, cost of gain remains economical for Alberta and Ontario feedlots.

SLAUGHTER

Domestic (Federally Inspected) slaughter was 2.86 million head in 2025, down 4%, to be the smallest since 2017.
Fed slaughter was 2.45 million head, down 4%. Non-fed slaughter was 400,100 head, down 5%.
Cow marketings in 2025 were the smallest on record going back to 2005 as the Canadian beef cow herd moved into rebuild.
Packer Utilization averaged 84% for the year and remain in the healthy range for this phase of the cattle cycle.

CARCASS WEIGHTS

Despite the US continuing to see large year over year gains in carcass weights in 2025, to offset smaller numbers. Canadian steer carcass weights averaged 944 lbs in 2025, three pounds lighter than 2024. However, weights were heavier for heifers, cows, and bulls offsetting some of the reduced slaughter.
In the West, steer weights were notably heavier during the fourth quarter. In the East, weights were steady (excluding the six weeks during the 2024 shutdown).

BEEF PRODUCTION

Domestic beef production declined 3% in 2025. Fed production was down 4% with non-fed production down 3%.
Live slaughter exports were down 5%.
Total beef production (domestic, live slaughter exports and offals) was down 4% to 3.36 billion pounds.

BEEF/CATTLE EXPORTS

In 2025 beef exports were down 2% at 486,100 metric tonnes; and up 8% to $5.31 billion. Export volumes declined for the third consecutive year; however, the value of those exports was the highest on record. The top five destinations by market share were the U.S. (75%), Japan (8.5%), Mexico (7%), Southeast Asia (4%), and South Korea (3%).
Live cattle exports at 692,900 head in 2025, were down 5% from 2024. Fed exports were down 5% with non-fed exports down 12%. Feeder exports were up 5% to 108,000 head.

BEEF/CATTLE IMPORTS

In 2025, beef imports were up 21% to 252,900 metric tonnes; and up 28% to $2.83 billion.
Canada’s top five suppliers were the U.S. (35%), Australia (21%), New Zealand (14%), the EU and U.K. (8%), and Mexico (5%).
In 2025, feeder imports were up 36% to 544,300 head. Leaving Canada a net feeder importer of almost 440,000 head. Larger imports have supported feedlots while allowing the beef breeding herd to increase.

Bottom line: Domestic beef production in 2026 is projected to be larger than 2025 supported by the additional feeder imports. This will support domestic packer utilization. Meanwhile, the southern Plains expect to have more plant closures, reducing feedlot leverage.

DEMAND

In 2025, Canadian retail beef demand was the strongest since the mid-1980’s. Retail beef demand was supported by historically strong deflated retail beef prices, and per capita supplies. Domestic supplies have been supported by larger beef imports.

RETAIL PRICES/CONSUMPTION

Nominal retail beef prices in 2025 were 13% higher in 2024 and 27% higher than the five-year average; deflated prices were 11% and 16% higher respectively.
Deflated retail pork and chicken prices were both up 4% from 2024. But have been relatively stable compared to beef’s climb.
The beef-to-pork price ratio averaged 2.46:1 in 2025, the beef-to-chicken price ratio averaged 2.54:1.

QUALITY GRADING

Prime and AAA grading averaged 79% in 2025, providing a consistent high-quality product to the marketplace.
The increase in the proportion of Prime and AAA graded beef has put some unconventional cuts on menus and has provided more price-friendly options at the meat counter for a wider range of consumers.

FED PRICES

Alberta fed steers averaged $292/cwt in 2025, 19% stronger than 2024. The first quarter was marked by tariff threats, limiting any seasonal increase. Counter seasonal summer strength was driven tight supplies due to the U.S.-Mexican border closure in July and punishing tariffs on Brazilian beef in August. Ontario fed steer prices were 24% stronger.
Feedlot margins on the cash market with no risk management in 2025 were estimated to be positive for all classes of cattle.

FEEDER PRICES

In 2025, Alberta 550 lb steer calves averaged $578/cwt, up 35% from 2024. Ontario steer calves averaged $551/cwt, up 34%, and U.S. steer calves averaged C$551/cwt up 30%.
In 2025, Alberta 550 lb steer calves averaged a $27/cwt premium to both Ontario and U.S. calves, encouraging imports.
In 2025, Alberta 850 lb steers averaged $432/cwt 30% stronger than 2024 with Ontario at $440/cwt and the U.S. at C$423/cwt. Alberta 850 feeder steers averaged an $8/cwt discount to same-weight Ontario steers but an $8/cwt premium to the U.S.

Bottom line: Beef is in the middle of a significant ‘protein moment’, and this is expected to continue into 2026. The revamped USDA food guide is anticipated to support beef demand on both sides of the Canadian-U.S. border. To date, prices have been supported by strong demand. That is expected to switch in 2026 to a rationing of supplies. Feeder prices are anticipated to remain strong, with no current timeline to re-open the Mexican border. Producers should expect price volatility with announcements around the CUSMA review.

Understanding the facts about the Livestock Price Insurance (LPI) program helps you make informed decisions for your operation. Straight from the pasture, the LPI team is here to dispel common myths, answer questions and explain how the LPI program works.

Five truths about Livestock Price Insurance:

You choose your policy length based on your intended marketing window.
Premiums are not profit loaded.
Insured animals do not need to be sold when coverage expires.
Full herd coverage is not required.
If the market drops, you’re covered. If prices rise, you benefit from higher markets.

Join Blythe as she walks through these five important truths about Livestock Price Insurance.

Check out the LPI Program Guide to learn more about Livestock Price Insurance.

With calving season underway, it is important to understand the differences between your policy options so you can select the coverage that best suits your operation. Our LPI team is here to dispel common myths and answer important questions about the Livestock Price Insurance (LPI) program.

Question: What is the difference between calf and feeder settlements?

Understanding how calf and feeder settlements differ can impact the policy you choose to purchase. Calf and feeder settlements are calculated using similar market-driven methods. Market data is collected from participating auction markets across western Canada and includes online and auction market sales.

The calf settlement index is based on weekly sales data for steers weighing 550–650 pounds, representing an average 600‑pound steer. Outliers in the top and bottom twelve percent are removed from the calculation to ensure accuracy.

The feeder settlement index is calculated using data from steers weighing 750–950 pounds. An adjustment is made with a weekly calculated slide to represent an 850lb steer. The calculation removes any outliers that are 10 per cent above or below.

Join Jeff as he explains the difference between calf and feeder settlements and how each settlement index is calculated.

Visit our Participating Auction Markets page to see which markets provide data for calf and feeder settlements.

Join LPI as we dispel common myths and answer important questions about the Livestock Price Insurance program.

Myth: LPI controls how a producer spends their claim payment.

Producers have full control over how they spend their indemnity payments. Whether it’s compensating for their monetary loss, re-investing in current livestock, or putting the payment toward other operational costs on the farm, it’s up to the producer to decide.

Join Courtney as she dispels the myth around how LPI claim payments are spent.

If you have questions or would like more information on Livestock Price Insurance, please contact your provincial Livestock Price Insurance office.

Join the LPI team as we dispel common myths and answer important questions about the Livestock Price Insurance (LPI) program.

Myth: Livestock Price Insurance guarantees you a set price at auction.

LPI is not individualized production insurance meaning cattle policies are not settled against the exact price a producer may receive at auction. Instead, LPI provides protection against market declines, giving producers the flexibility to sell when conditions are right.

Join Courtney as she dispels the myth that LPI guarantees a set auction price.

Understanding coverage

Producers pay a premium to receive forward price coverage. By purchasing this coverage, they establish a floor price within the market.

In final four weeks of the policy, producers have the option to settle. A claim can be made if the market falls below the insured index (coverage price) during the claim window. When a claim is settled, LPI pays the difference between the insured index and the settlement index (market price).

If the market is above the insured index (coverage price) purchased, producers can benefit by selling livestock into the higher regional market.

Settlement values reflect weekly market conditions and are determined using data collected from various auction markets across western Canada. Once data is collected, it is sorted to be representative of the two regions (AB and SaskMan).

LPI covers declining price movements but does not limit the upwards price movement potential. It is designed to help manage market risk while giving producers peace of mind.

To learn more, download the LPI Program Guide.

Are you curious about the cash sale prices and lot weights that form the weekly Livestock Price Insurance (LPI) Feeder and Calf settlement indexes? We are breaking down the index for you.

Recent updates to LPI market information include settlement price and weight graphs, enhancing understanding of how auction data shapes settlement indexes.

What are the settlement price graphs?

The settlement price graphs below show a visual summary of the cash sale prices collected weekly that are used to build out the LPI Calf and Feeder settlement indexes.

The cash sales data is derived from participating auction markets in BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Auction markets send us their raw files directly after sale closeout (same data used to pay their clients). The data is then filtered by our Pricing department to include only lots that fit the parameters of the LPI Feeder and Calf products.

Understanding the settlement price graphs

Identify what region (Alberta or SaskMan), weight ranges (Calf or Feeder), and settlement index (cash price for the week) the graph represents
Bars within the graph represent the range of cash prices used to calculate the weekly settlement index.
Height of the bars within the graphs represent the percentage of cattle that received a cash price in the specified ranges.

In this example, the largest group of prices included within the index are in the price range of $560-620/cwt and more than 25 per cent of the cash sales included in the weekly index were in the $600/cwt price range.

What are the settlement weight graphs?

The settlement weight graphs below show a visual summary of animals weights collected on a weekly basis with their cash sale price used to build out the LPI Calf and Feeder settlement indexes.

Understanding the settlement weight graphs

Identify what region (Alberta or SaskMan), weight ranges (Calf or Feeder), and average weight the graph represents
Bars within the graphs represent the range of animal weights used to calculate the weekly settlement index
Height of the bars within the graphs represent the percentage of head within that weight range in the settlement index

The Calf settlement index is calculated from calves that weigh between 550-650lbs. In this example, more than three of the 20lbs weight ranges made up over 20 per cent of the data in the weekly settlement index.

Need to refresh your memory on the parameters of the Calf and Feeder settlement indexes?

Visit the About LPI – Cattle page to learn more about how the data we gather is used for the settlement of policies as well as these graphs.

Raw auction market sales data will not be disclosed due to contractual obligations. For a list of participating auction markets visit, LPI.ca/participating-auction-markets.

With many policies settling this fall, the LPI team is back to dispel common myths and answer important questions about the Livestock Price Insurance (LPI) program.

Question: Does LPI include forward sales in settlement?

No, LPI does not include forward sales in our settlement data. LPI’s parameters for a cash sale are defined as delivery within 14 days of sale. This ensures we adhere to using market data that reflects current market conditions. Forward sales delivered outside of the 14-day window are not included.

Join Taylor as he explains why forward pricing is not included in settlement pricing.

Download the LPI Program Guide or visit Understanding Premiums and Settlements to learn more about settlements.

For cattle producers, taking calves to market is always a calculated risk. Prices can shift overnight due to factors beyond your control—weather, trade uncertainty, feed costs, and more.

The last thing you want is to see your profits disappear because of a sudden market downturn. Protecting your bottom line with Livestock Price Insurance (LPI) is one way to manage your risk and gain peace of mind in an unpredictable market.

With LPI, cow-calf producers reduce price risk and protect against market volatility by buying price insurance for calves they plan to sell between September and February.

Calf price insurance is available for purchase each year from February into June. For 2025, the last day to buy calf insurance is June 12.

“Some farmers think of calf insurance as a bonus cheque and that’s not the way to use it. It’s a way to insure your bottom price to enable you to market your calves better. I know the year I didn’t have calf insurance I was pretty nervous all summer and maybe made some bad marketing decisions. When you have that, you know absolutely what your bottom is for your calf crop and the skies the limit from there. You can market them. You can hold them. I think the secret to the insurance program is the ability to market and to have peace of mind.”

– Chris Sloan, Sloan Cattle Company

Managing risk through trade uncertainty

With ongoing trade uncertainty, producers are taking steps to ensure their bottom-line is protected.

LPI has seen increasing sales this year, as producers choose to protect their planned livestock sales.

In comparison to last year, calf insured units for April are up 43.6 per cent. Overall, there has been a 66 per cent increase in clients purchasing calf, feeder, and fed policies.

Trends show that producers are choosing the highest coverage available when buying calf policies, with 73 per cent of calf purchases using the top coverage for the corresponding policy length.

The most popular expiry dates for calf policies are later October.

Protecting your bottom-line

LPI helps cattle and hog producers manage financial risks by providing a buffer against market volatility.

If market prices fall below the insured level, producers receive a payout to cover the difference.

Setting a floor price provides producers with stability so they can plan their operations with more certainty, knowing they have a guaranteed minimum revenue.

Producers can choose different coverage options and policy lengths based on futures markets, with varying premium levels. This flexibility helps you tailor the insurance to your specific needs and market conditions.

Sign up for LPI Premium and Settlement emails to help you monitor the premium tables and keep up to date on market fluctuations.

If you have questions or would like more information, please contact your provincial Livestock Price Insurance office.

Join LPI as we dispel common myths and answer important questions about the Livestock Price Insurance program.

Myth: Producers are required to have livestock at the time a policy is purchased

Depending on the contract, producers are required to keep their existing livestock anywhere from four weeks to 60 days upon entering contract, but they are not required to have livestock at the time a policy is purchased.

Join Brett as he talks about how producers can make management decisions before calving or purchasing livestock.

The last cattle cycle was 14 years. From the 2008 peak to 2015 low was seven years, then from 2015 to the 2022 peak was another seven years. Entering another cattle cycle, it should be remembered that cattle numbers are relatively tighter than the 2022 peak, but there is a long way to go, before revisiting the 2015 low. That will not happen until moisture conditions encourage heifer retention to start. In the last cycle, heifer retention started in the fourth quarter of 2013.

The Canadian cattle herd on January 1st, 2025 was down 0.7% from 2024 with beef cows down 1.2%. Improved moisture in May, reduced cow marketing – this will need to continue to fully stabilize the herd. Unfortunately, the weather outlook is for another dry summer in the west. Beef heifers replacements increased a modest 0.8% but remain below levels needed for stabilization, let alone expansion. The U.S. cattle herd on January 1st, 2025 was down 0.9% from 2024 with beef cows down 1%. As carcass weights increase, the inventory low in every cycle is lower than the previous cycle and the high is lower too. As industry becomes more efficient.

On a deflated basis (1992=100), Alberta fed steer prices were 8% stronger than 2023, moving above their previous high set in 2015. Alberta 550 lb and 850 lb steers also moved above their previous highs. Feeder cattle prices in the last two years have increased more than input costs, supporting cow-calf margins.

Cuts in the key interest rate in 2024 and 2025 reduced borrowing costs, supporting consumers. However, the unemployment rate is considered to be above the “neutral rate” of 4.9-5.5%. There are 2.4 million more people in the last two years, driven primarily by immigration. The Bank of Canada has forecast GDP growth to be 1.8% in 2025 and 2026. Per capita GDP growth is a major driver of beef consumption and willingness to pay.

Bottom line: The North American cattle herd continues to shrink and smaller slaughter numbers are expected to support prices. Consumer demand was resilient in 2024. US tariffs have the potential to be very disruptive to agricultural markets with volatility driven by uncertainty.

2025 CHALLENGE

The threat of US tariffs on Canadian products remains a concern. On March 7th, there was a pause on the 25% tariff for Mexico and Canadian goods and services covered under CUSMA until April 2nd.

2024/25P BARLEY SUPPLY AND DISPOSITION

Canadian barley production was 8.1 million metric tonnes in 2024, down 9% from 2023, and down 2% from the five-year average.
Barley exports in 2024-25 are projected at three million metric tonnes, down 2% from 2023-24. Total domestic use in 2024/25 is projected at 5.7 million metric tonnes, up 3% from 2023-24.
Ending stocks in 2024-25 are projected at 700,000 metric tonnes, down 39% and projected to be the second smallest on record going back to 1980.
The stocks-to-use ratio in 2024-25 is projected at 13%, steady with the five-year average.

2024/25P CORN SUPPLY AND DISPOSITION

Canadian corn production was 15.35 million metric tonnes, the second largest on record behind only 2023-24
Exports in 2024-25 are projected at 2.3 million metric tonnes, up 13% from 2023-24. Total domestic use in 2024-25 is projected at 15.14 million metric tonnes, down 5% from 2023-24.
Ending stocks in 2024-25 are projected at two million metric tonnes, steady with 2023-24.
The stocks-to-use ratio in 2024-25 is projected at 13%, compared to the five-year average of 14%.

FEED GRAIN PRICES

Lethbridge barley unevenly declined 16% between January and August, bottoming just prior to the 2024 harvest. Between August and December, Lethbridge barley climbed 15%.
Lethbridge barley averaged $289/tonne in 2024, down 27% from 2023 and down 16% from the five-year average.
Lethbridge barley was priced competitively against Alberta oats in 2024, but not against Omaha or Ontario corn.
Ontario corn was largely rangebound in 2024, with a steady increase noted between July and December.
Ontario corn averaged $214/tonne in 2024, down 24% from 2023 and down 21% from the five-year average.
Omaha corn averaged C$232/tonne in 2024, down 26% from 2023 and down 14% from the five-year average.

HAY PRICES

The first half of 2024 saw elevated hay prices in Alberta, driven by dry weather in 2023. Timely rains in the summer of 2024 increased production and reduced prices for the 2024 crop.
Alberta hay prices averaged $246/ton ($271/tonne), up 8% from 2023 and up 18% from the five-year average.
Montana hay prices averaged US$137/ton (C$207/tonne) in 2024. This was at a discount to Alberta throughout 2024.

Bottom line: Lower feed prices have supported feeding margins. Ontario corn is still the cheapest feed in North America, followed by Omaha corn. Alberta barley is uncompetitive but by a narrower margin than previous years.

SLAUGHTER

Domestic (FI) slaughter was 2.99 million head in 2024, down 5%. This was below three million head for the first time since 2017, in part, due to the Cargill Guelph shutdown in June.
Fed slaughter was 2.56 million head in 2024, down 2%. Non-fed slaughter was 422,000 head in 2024, down 19%.
Rain in May reduced cow marketings and points to a more stable herd as industry moves into the consolidation phase. Moisture is needed before heifer retention occurs.

CARCASS WEIGHTS

Steer carcass weights averaged 948 lbs in 2024, 22 lbs heavier.
Western Canadian steer carcasses averaged 940 lbs in 2024, 23 lbs heavier than 2023. Weights were notably heavier from January to April before being more current in the second half.
Eastern Canadian steer carcasses averaged 972 lbs in 2024, 21 pounds heavier than 2023, and appeared immune to seasonal trends.

BEEF PRODUCTION

Domestic beef production declined 2% in 2024, driven by non-fed production which was down 16%. Fed production in 2024 was steady with 2023. Production was supported by heavier carcass weights which offset smaller slaughter numbers.
Live slaughter exports were up 18.6% at 538 million pounds.
Total beef production (domestic, live slaughter exports and offals) was up a modest 0.3% at 3.45 billion pounds.

BEEF/CATTLE EXPORTS

In 2024 beef exports were down 1% at 495,000 metric tonnes; and down 2% to $4.93 billion, but remain the second largest on record. The top five destinations were the U.S. (76%), Japan (9%), Mexico (6%), South Korea (3%), and Southeast Asia (3%).
Live cattle exports at 729,000 head in 2024, up 9% from 2023. Fed exports were 20-41% higher to be the largest since 2010, while non-fed exports were 9-12% lower. Feeder exports were down 20% to 103,000 head

BEEF/CATTLE IMPORTS

In 2024, beef imports were up 12% to 208,000 metric tonnes; and up 19% to $2.19 billion.
Canada’s top five suppliers were the U.S. (45%), Australia (14%), New Zealand (13%), the EU and U.K. (10%). Uruguay and Mexico (6%) share fifth place.
In 2024, feeder imports were up 24% to 356,500 head, the second largest after 2021. Leaving Canada a net feeder importer by 253,000 head fully offsetting the smaller calf crop with larger fourth quarter imports.

Bottom line: Domestic beef production in 2025 is projected to be steady to slightly smaller, depending on carcass weights. With live slaughter exports projected to be higher, assuming US tariffs are not applied. Imports are anticipated to remain historically large in 2025.

DEMAND

Beef demand remains historically strong. Retail beef demand is projected higher in 2024 supported by stronger deflated retail prices and modest reductions in per capita consumption.

RETAIL PRICES/CONSUMPTION

Nominal retail beef prices in 2024 were 6% higher in 2024 and 21% higher than the five-year average; deflated prices were 4% and 10% higher respectively.
Deflated pork retail prices were 1% lower in 2024, with deflated retail chicken prices 7% lower.
The beef-to-pork price ratio averaged 2.31:1 in 2024, the beef-to-chicken price ratio averaged 2.39:1
Per capita meat consumption (including seafish) increased 4% in 2023 to 80 kg/person. Per capita beef consumption in 2023 averaged 16.2 kg/person, down 7% from 2022. Subsequently, beef market share was 25%, down from 28% in 2022. A growing population and tighter North American supplies are pressuring per capita consumption.

FED PRICES

Alberta fed steers averaged $246/cwt in 2024, 9% stronger with seasonal trends. Ontario fed cattle prices were 6-10% stronger.
On a deflated basis, Alberta fed steers were up 8% from 2023 with Ontario fed steers up 6%.
The Alberta-to-Nebraska cash basis averaged -$12/cwt in 2024, $3/cwt stronger than 2023 but $4/cwt weaker than the five-year average.
Feedlot margins in 2024 were estimated to be negative on average for most classes of cattle with the exception of steer calves and shortkeep steers.

FEEDER PRICES

In 2024, Alberta 550 lb steer calves averaged $429/cwt, 21% higher than 2023, Ontario steer calves averaged $412/cwt, up 26%, and U.S. steer calves averaged C$424/cwt up 21%. During the fourth quarter, a six percent weakening of the Canadian dollar supported feeder prices along with a stronger futures market and tight supplies.
In 2024, Alberta 550 lb steer calves averaged a $16/cwt premium to Ontario calves and a $5/cwt premium to the U.S.
In 2024, Alberta 850 lb steers averaged $331/cwt 16% stronger than 2023 with Ontario at $335/cwt and the U.S. at C$326/cwt. In 2024, Alberta 850 feeder steers were at a $4/cwt discount to same-weight Ontario steers but were at a $5/cwt premium to the U.S.

Bottom line: In the first quarter of 2025, feeder prices remain strong with fundamental support. However, there are also expectations of stronger prices in the second half of the year as supplies tighten. Market volatility is expected throughout 2025 with an ongoing trade war. Livestock Price Insurance provides a price floor, protecting against downside risk, while leaving the upside open.